Lately I have been thinking about if the downturn in Alberta's real estate market will effect the sale of B.C. waterfront in 2008. Since our launch, our Canadian site traffic has consisted of 20-25% Albertan visitors and many of our member real estate agents report selling their high-end waterfront homes to Albertans. The word is out-Albertans love B.C. waterfront and have been buying it up steadily in the last few years. The question is, will this demand last with the current market conditions in Calgary and Edmonton?
I decided to take a look at our site statistics to see if I could see any changes in our traffic recently. I compared the traffic from Sept. 5, 2006-Dec. 5, 2006 to the exact same period for 2007. The results? Our site traffic has increased substantially and Albertans still comprise exactly 21% of our Canadian visitors. Albertans comprised 17.4% of our worldwide traffic during this period of 2006, while they made up 16.9% during the same period this year-a drop of a mere 0.5%. Interestingly, I don't believe this minor drop reflects a waning of interest from our Albertan neighbours. Rather, I think it is a result of some additional marketing we have done on sites in the US and abroad, which have resulted in an increase in visitors from other countries.
While our stats show that Albertan interest in B.C. waterfront is still strong, some anecdotal evidence points to the B.C. market already being mildly effected. We have some family friends in Edmonton who put their home on the market about 8 months ago hoping to sell and move to Kelowna. Their house still hasn't sold and their plans to buy in B.C. are on hold. In addition, Ozzie Jurock states in his recent newsletter that he expects to see some Albertan investors backing off of the Kelowna area in 2008.
So what is the conclusion from all of this? Judging from our stats, the interest in B.C. waterfront from Albertans is just as strong as it was last year. In addition, many of our member real estate agents report that they continue to see an influx of Albertans looking for waterfront. Apart from the real estate market, the Albertan economy remains strong. I believe that those Albertans who have decided to buy here to make a lifestyle/retirement change are still set on purchasing; however, the continued increasing B.C. prices (forecast by CMHC) and impact of the Alberta slump may make this more difficult to achieve for those Albertans dependent on selling their own homes to buy their B.C. property. The result may be a more balanced waterfront market and more options for buyers in 2008.
